2020 Economic Predictions

Some of my favorite economic reports come from Mauldin Economics and in a recent "Charts that Matter" column by John Mauldin he cited what the analysts at BlackRock are predicting for 2020. They see 1.8% being our country's GDP growth this year, our core inflation rate, the 10 Year Treasury yield, and the Fed Fund Rate all to be at about 1.8% as they are near to today.

If true, this means NO recession this year which is good news. If true, mortgage rates should remain at or just below 4% which is welcome news. But, will all 4 facets of economic measurement really not change this year? I doubt it.

Brian Wesbury, chief economist for First Trust Portfolios gave these predictions for 2020. First, is GDP growth of 2.5% at least. Second, our economy will add about 1.8 million new jobs with the unemployment rate falling to 3.3%. Third, he predicts that the Core CPI will rise from 2.2% to 2.5% this year. If Brian and his team are correct, then mortgage rates should increase by ¼% to ½% this year.