I recently read a very engaging article about the future of new housing for the next decade written by George Casey who chairs the Housing Innovation Alliance and is the CEO of Stockbridge Associates, LLC. Here are some of his predictions-
- Housing demand will continue to out-strip housing supply for a good part of the next decade. George notes that we need to be building at least 1.6 million new housing units a year to keep pace with growth. Second, we have a shortage of about 6 million homes he estimates.
- Why? NIMBYism will be hard to reverse. Second, unless immigration policy reverses considerably, fewer and fewer citizens will be available for the trades. Third, rent control passed in CA and OR will soon pass in other states like CO and rent control will do nothing to help increase the supply of housing.
- Productivity will improve as more off-site construction of a prefabricated wall and floor panels and roof systems will become more widely used.
- "Developers, particularly master-planned community developers, will be among the first to really embrace factory-built housing solutions." He is referring to much more modular construction.
- He expects that the trend toward building communities of new single-family homes for rent will grow in popularity and this sector may be an early adaptor of off-site construction or factory-built housing.
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