Two weeks ago the Treasury market officially Inverted when the 10 year yield dropped below the 2 year yield. This has happened 9 times in the last 70 years and each time a recession occurred in the near future, anywhere from 6 to 22 months later. Thus, even more people are predicting a recession soon.

I have also read many economists and other experts who have said each of our last 7 recessions have been caused by the Fed. Why? Because they were too slow to act by reducing interest rates. Thus, the yield curve inverted, mainly because the Fed was too slow in reducing short-term rates.

This include the fact that negative rates are rampant in Europe and Japan and those negative rates are driving down rates everywhere else in the developed wordl.

Last week Janet Yellen said yield curve inversion may be a false recession signal this time. Why? She answered, “The reason for that is there are a number of factors other than market expectations about the future path of interest rates that are pushing down long-term yields.”