Elliot spoke last Thursday at SMDRA's Annual Realtor Appreciation Breakfast and Eliott is one of my favorite national economists. Here is what I learned from him-

  • Manufacturing is currently only 12% of our GDP versus 35% of our GDP over 30 years ago. This is why our economy overall is not in recession even though manufacturing is in recession.
  • GDP growth is weak because our nation's population growth is very weak and our productivity growth is weak too. At the event Elliot encouraged everyone to have more sex and more babies.
  • He thinks the Fed will lower short-term rates before they increase them.
  • Housing is the only sector that hasn't recovered from the recession.
  • Privately I talked with him about affordable housing and he told me the biggest barrier to affordable housing is...government with more regulations and requirements, more expensive fees, exclusionary zoning etc. Sounds like me.