Where are Mortgage Rates Going in 2022?

Logan Mohtashami, one of my favorite analysts was interviewed last week by Housing Wire. I will focus on his thoughts on Treasury yields and mortgage rates. He believes that the 4-decade trend of lower 10 Year Treasury Yields is stronger than any economic news. Second, he doesn’t see the 10 Year T-Bill yield going over 1.94% which is where yields ended 2019 after the inverted bond yield curve that year. Thus, mortgage rates would remain less than 3.75%. Finally, Logan said he wouldn’t be shocked if mortgage rates dropped to 2.50%-2.625% in 2022. WOW!!

While the Mortgage Bankers Association believes mortgage rates will be 4% by next December. Honestly, I think the answer is somewhere in between.